Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes

Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle

The interest in business cycle asymmetry has been steadily increasing over the last fteen years. Most research has focused on the di erent behaviour of macroeconomic variables during expansions and contractions, which by now is well documented. Recent evidence suggests that such a two-phase characterization of the business cycle might be too restrictive. In particular, it might be worthwhile to...

No . 99 Macroeconomic Regimes Business Cycle

The disequilibrium framework is extended to account for investment-savings imbalances that are likely to affect capital accumulation. A simple graphical analysis is put forward to analyse the additional regimes arising out of this imbalance and different adjustment mechanisms are discussed. These different regimes are compared with existing business cycle theories, showing that this framework d...

Business Cycle Features In The Iranian Economy

Dating Business Cycle in Oil Exporting Countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating busi...

Bank Lending Behaviour over the Business Cycle in Iran

This paper studies bank loans over the business cycles in Iran to determine the role of Iranian banks in stabilizing credit. By estimating the long-run relations using dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS estimators, the findings show that real bank lending is positively related to real GDP in the long-run providing evidences of the pro-cyclicality of bank lending in Iran. Hence, Iranian banking ...